Predicting re-offending: A 5-year prospective study of Icelandic prison inmates

The study investigates differences in psychological, offending history, and substance use variables between desisters and recidivists among 461 Icelandic prison inmates, who were followed up 5 years after their release from prison. Almost half (48%) of the sample were re-convicted during the 5-year period and had received one or more prison sentences. Recidivists scored significantly lower than desisters on the Gough Socialization Scale, and desisters scored significantly higher on Self-Deception and Other-Deception Questionnaires. Recidivists had more extensive offending history, and had reported more substance use than desisters. A discriminant function analysis was performed in order to investigate which variables discriminated best between desisters and recidivists. The results indicate that offending history variables and low other-deception, discriminated best between the two groups. The results emphasize the importance of previous criminal history and antisocial personality traits as risk factors and impression management or social desirability as a protective factor.