Towards a systems perspective in policy design: An analysis of how the endogenous feedback structure of the Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry impacts policy outcomes

The Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry has seen remarkable growth since its beginnings merely 60 years ago. Key to this growth have been technological innovations resulting in major productivity improvements and a licensing scheme that has enabled much faster growth than in other salmon-producing countries. This growth and efficiency improvements, combined with high prices, have resulted in a highly profitable industry. However, the same industry still faces considerable environmental and social sustainability challenges. In part, they relate to external factors like the uncertainty of the production environment, and the regulatory framework. However, it seems that part of the reason for these challenges is endogenous to the system, relating to its internal structure and feedback processes and how this structure impacts its response to external factors. In this work, an abductive system dynamics approach is used to study the endogenous structure of the Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry and how it has shaped its development and contributed to the issues facing it today. The findings indicate that the industry's dynamics are, to an extent, determined by the system's internal feedback structure and that the way in which the system responds to external factors, such as policy interventions, has contributed to the industry's current challenges by maintaining and even exaggerating the behaviour that they are supposed to constrain.